Labour's Back - But Has Anyone Noticed?

If you follow politics you will have noticed that the left have been in a buoyant mood over the last couple of weeks.

Contrast this with 2009. The dominant memes last year were despair and denial. Labour's supporters continued to express anger and incredulity that anyone could be taken in by John Key's vacuous smile, and Phil Goff's patchy performance last year would have disappointed many.

So what has changed? Certainly the hope has returned. Various ministers have made twits of themselves in the House, lulled into traps set by wily Labour campaigners such as Mallard and King. And John Key has, for once, been widely criticised in sections of the media for a lack of ambition and vision.

But does any of this make a difference? Despite Key's lacklustre performance and the disastrous efforts of ministers such as Anne Tolley, and despite potentially unpopular policies like conservation-estate mining and GST increases being floated, this government is as popular as ever. Labour has barely made a dent in National's popularity, if recent polls are to be believed.

It is tempting for those of us who don't particularly like this government to crow over the Parliamentary footage of Anne Tolley and Paula Bennett being made to look like fools. But the number of people politically engaged enough to know or care that National is getting a flogging in the House is small. 

So, again, does any of this make a difference? Possibly. If politics is war, then Parliamentary debates are where the trench warfare takes place. For those who get their news by reading the paper or watching the telly, it probably makes little difference who is saying what in the House. So being able to terrorise ministers in the House doesn't pay immediate dividends in terms of votes - but it does energise the faithful and give confidence to an Opposition. And Labour has regained some of its old confidence.

But the ever-smiling Key is still a long way away from being in trouble. He has a solid core that will vote National irrespective of what his government does, so he only needs to hold sufficient middle ground to retain the votes of those who shifted from Labour last election. Many of them will likely return to Labour when they realise the change promised by Key either didn't happen, or happened in a way they did not expect. But this may not be until after the next election.

So, while Labour's supporters will be encouraged by its performance this year, it may not yet be time to start celebrating the demise of National.