Monday, April 18, 2011

Look At The Polls!

Now I understand everything.

John Pagani, adviser to Phil Goff is crying "Don't panic! Don't panic!" in this post in reponse to the dire poll released yesterday, and is attacking Labour's critics, including me and Danyl McLaughlan. He appears not to have read any of the blog posts he is critical of, including the one I wrote. This does not surprise me. It's been pretty obvious for a while that Goff's advisers have completely failed to read the mood of the public.

Pagani says I advocated a shift to the left in my post, when I did no such thing. I was critical of the move to vote for the CERA legislation, but that's not quite the same as wanting the party to shift to the left. What I would really like to see is a demonstration of principles on the odd occasion, and a defence of the rule of law.

My post was essentially a plea for a more coherent and organised Labour, one that holds the government to account, and that doesn't itself become the main story.

And in any event it does no good to whine about what the commentariat are saying. I don't kid myself that I have that much influence outside of a small group of people on the internet who avidly follows politics. The masses aren't interested in what people like me are saying, but nor do they care for the "just hang in there" message. Something has to change. Just look at the polls, man! Sure, it's one really bad poll, but the others weren't all that flash either. They can't all be wrong.

Pagani explains his winning strategy in his post.
But there is another explanation - one that’s not quite as neat for the left of politics: That a plurality of people actually approve of the job the National party is doing. That the last thing they want is a leap back to the last government. 
They’re not desperate for a leap to the left.

They’re waiting for Labour to demonstrate it genuinely understands their needs - and that means endorsing more of what National is doing - the things the voting public approves of.

Every time Labour attacks policies and a government that voters generally approve of they alienate themselves further from potential supporters who are swinging between Labour and National.
He goes on to write:
It simply beggars belief to say that the right response to that situation is to start flying into the most popular things National is doing.
Take those calls by Labour’s critics on the left that Labour should tell thousands of people in Christchurch, who are using buckets for their ablutions - that politicking over the CERA law is more important than actually getting things fixed for them as fast as possible.

Insisting the public is wrong is a recipe for even more disaster. Attacking constructive things the government is doing is exactly the wrong option.

If anything, Labour should be pursuing more of a consensus approach, so that it can own more of the right direction.
So the answer is not to oppose, but to work with the government, even though the government will get all the credit. Exactly what is the point in being the opposition? And you thought this post was a satire? When did the party of Savage, Kirk and Clark become such a pack of lambs?

Pagani's strategy is to play the "me too" game. For Labour to become National-Lite. Labour could keep fighting for policies that they know are right, even if they don't achieve anything in the short term. Or they could keep doing what they are doing: surrendering the fight. What they are doing is pissing away Labour's core support.

And is the National-Lite approach working? Look at the polls!

10 comments:

  1. Well said. If this is a sign of Labour thinking then they'd better get used to the view from their present seats in parliament. Where's their passion? Where's their fire? What do they believe any way? "Vote for us because we're not them?"
    With brand Key so strongly implanted in people's faces, that is never going to work. Where are the Kirks, Frasers, Savages, Nashes, etc of this lot? Please produce some people who passionately believes in the lot of the 'common folk' instead of this lot who try to win votes by outdoing National on policy, press releases and sound bites. That will never compete against Key's mastery of 'infotainment', added by some very slick behind the scenes PR work (Crosby & Textor?). Are the NZ public supporting the Nats because of their policies? Does the public actually know what National's policies are? Or are the polling results still very much a reflection of Key?

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  2. "He appears not to have read any of the blog posts he is critical of, including the one I wrote. This does not surprise me. It's been pretty obvious for a while that Goff's advisers have completely failed to read the mood of the public."

    I like the way you conflated "my blog posts" with "the public" there.

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  3. A cunning plan: it's just a jump to the right and then a step to the right. Let's do the Time Warp again.

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  4. I do wonder if this is partially a result of spending too long in power. They just don't have the mongrel in their leadership that's needed for a good opposition party.

    Right now we've got National, the same-isition and a few minor parties who can't quite make up their mind who or what they stand for.

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  5. "I don't kid myself that I have that much influence outside of a small group of people on the internet who avidly follows politics."

    As part of a small group of people on the internet who avidly follow politics, I await your next command, my liege.

    And could it be to vote for the Alliance? Please? There'd be a lovely retro vibe to that, as well as an irony given John Pagani's history ...

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  6. Goodness, it's so easy to pull this crap to bits.
    That a plurality of people actually approve of the job the National party is doing.
    That's because Labour haven't presented an alternative.
    That the last thing they want is a leap back to the last government.
    If the best Labour can come up with is "...a leap back to the last government..." then they seriously don't deserve to be the government (or the opposition, for that matter) after the next election. Labour need to articulate something that is "better than National" and "better than 1999-2008 Labour". How difficult can that be?
    They’re waiting for Labour to demonstrate it genuinely understands their needs
    (a) it's more than that, people want to know what Labour will do.
    (b) how long do we have to wait?
    - and that means endorsing more of what National is doing
    Ummm, if you think your support relies on endorsing National is doing, then maybe you should work for Rodney Hide or Peter Dunne. In 2008 I voted Labour to be the government.
    If they couldn't be the government I wanted them to be the opposition. If I wanted to vote for a party that endorsed National, I'd have voted National. It's that simple.
    It simply beggars belief to say that the right response to that situation is to start flying into the most popular things National is doing.
    National is doing a whole lot of stuff that is not popular, and a whole lot more that shouldn't be. Labour is failing, spectacularly, to do SFA about it.
    Actually, this comment exemplifies everything that is wrong with Labour's approach at present. The total lack of courage, or firmness of their beliefs is what is truly beggars belief.
    Attacking constructive things the government is doing is exactly the wrong option.
    CERA is not constructive. It should have been openly and viciously attacked. Labour failed. And now, thanks to your link to Mr Pagani's blog, I understand why.

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  7. Un-be-frikking-lieveable. "..and that means endorsing more of what National is doing.." Words fail me: take away your input and it's a near-identical extension of your satirical post.
    Explains a lot, an horrendous, stupefying lot, yes going all the way back to the Alliance. Did I read somewhere he'd left? Please let it be true.

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  8. WTF, Pagani has to be the most unsuccessful political strategist in NZ history... Thankfully the Labour Party jettisoned him.

    It's almost like he thinks he has to trick people into voting Labour, rather than communicating why Labour is worth voting for...

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  9. Scott, come on, admit it! You hacked Pagani's blog (not that hard since the password was 'iluvphil318') and uploaded a post of fine satire!

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  10. John Pagani must be a pretty awful strategist if cannot see that Labour are already National-Lite.

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