The Sunday Star Times has a story about the latest Horizon poll, which shows that, while the Nats are comfortably ahead of Labour, the difference between the left and right is small.
This is good news for the left for sure, even if the polling methodology Horizon uses suggests that the results may not be as credible as those of the polls that use phone polling.
From what I can tell anyone can register to vote on the Horizon political poll, so it would be quite easy for a small group of committed activists to influence poll results. I'm not saying that has happened, but it is noticeable the trend in the Horizon Poll is for the left parties to register higher support than in the other regular polls (TV3, TVNZ, Roy Morgan). The other regular polls indicate that the gap between left and right is still quite big.
Phone polling has its own problems, because a lot of people with limited means don't have landlines, and this may skew some results towards the right parties. But whether this is a major factor or not isn't clear.
It's also pretty obvious that the two TV polls are the only ones that count, at least in the minds of the mainstream commentariat. A day after the Roy Morgan poll came out showing a lift in support for Labour and the Greens, I was still hearing people on the radio talking about how damning of Labour's tax package the TVNZ poll was.
All of this suggests that, while polls are useful measures of where public support for political parties resides at any given time, we should be wary of taking too much from them.