I hadn’t
managed to comment on the most recent political poll until now, but it suggests that the
November election could be a tight contest.
After the
last Roy Morgan Poll David Farrar observed that National had dropped only 2%
over the last three years, while support for Labour had increased by 3%. Farrar gleefully wrote:
If that rate continued it would not be until almost 2020 that Labour outpolled National.
Yet in last week’s Herald Digipoll the gap between the two
main parties reduced from 21.7% to 15.1% in one month.
If that rate continues Labour will be outpolling National by
October.
I’m not for a moment suggesting that such a thing will
happen. It does illustrate, though, how erratic the polls can be.
Labour wouldn’t necessarily need to catch National in the
polls to govern after the election, because it has more coalition options. If
the Greens can get 8% of the vote and Labour can move up another 5-6% the election
may come down to the wire. The common wisdom six months ago was that Labour had
no show without Winston Peters. But since then ACT and the Maori Party have
imploded. A Peters-less parliament could still have a Labour government by the end
of 2011.
That really isn’t as unlikely as some people may think. The
Greens are somewhere between 6-10% in most polls, and Labour’s recently been
scoring in the mid-30s. A strong election campaign could see them pick up more
support. They haven’t yet released any major policy, so if they can come up
with good policies that are well-costed they could see their numbers moving up.
The Nats aren’t without options of their own, but none of
them are sure things. The ACT brand is so tarnished that there’s no telling
what the folk of Epsom might do, and the Maori Party is likely to take a pounding
in November. Peter Dunne’s seat is marginal, and Labour will push hard to win
it this year.
The biggest uncertainty is the Rugby World Cup and whether
it will affect the political mood of the nation. Nobody knows yet.
The election promises to be a gripping contest, whatever
happens.
Based on the Herald Digi-poll, National could have a majority as small as 4-5 seats.
ReplyDeleteThis aint over by a long way!