TV3 Poll Shows Gap Not Closing

The latest TV3 poll isn't great news for Labour, and it yet again shows how much the polls are jumping about, although support for National remains solid.

While it indicates that on current form the Nats can rule alone, none of National's allies do well in the poll. ACT is still trawling somewhere near the bottom, while the Maori Party's support is low and they will probably only bring in a couple of electorate MPs. Dunne may be there if he hangs onto his seat, but that could be a close thing. So the Nats cannot rely too much on their allies if they drop below 50% support.

The real beneficiaries in this poll are the Greens. It's not dire news for Labour that some of its support may have moved to the Greens. Realistically Labour cannot expect to form a government without the Greens, so votes to the Greens aren't entirely wasted as far as Labour supporters are concerned. It would be worse if Labour's lost votes had drifted entirely to the Nats.

But I won't pretend the poll is good news for the left. It shows the gap between the two main parties is significant. However, the gap could close quickly if an issue grabs the public imagination. I'm not sure whether Labour's tax policy will do that, because I've no idea what it consists of. If support for the Greens holds and Labour can creep into the mid-30s then they'll still be in the hunt.

My pick is that the gap will close before the election, but by how much is anyone's guess. I certainly wouldn't be writing Labour's obituary just yet.