One positive for Labour amidst the gloom of the latest Fairfax poll is that Labour is polling over 20 times higher than ACT.
I'll take any small victory I can at this stage.
And it's no great surprise that ACT is doing so poorly. I doubt the release of its party list will make much difference, because the people on the group are less than inspiring. On current polling it's largely academic who else besides the three B's is on the list (Brash, Boscawen, Banks). If the latest Fairfax poll were translated to an election result only John Banks would get into Parliament, assuming he wins Epsom.
If ACT does badly in November then we should expect Don Brash to be rolled, or to just give up. He promised that the bloodletting, ruthlessness and betrayals would all be for the greater good. It's not working so far.
I was surprised by the number of usually-sensible people who thought Cathy Odgers, aka Cactus Kate, should have got a place on the list. She may be smart and stroppy, but someone who expresses such a loud and regular contempt for the poor was never going to have a show of appearing high on the list. She may simply be echoing what Brash and others think, but they at least pretend to give a damn about the plight of the poor. Even if (judging by the polls) almost nobody believes them.
Anyway, back to the Fairfax poll. It's not pretty for ACT, but nor is it going to make Labour feel any better. It seems that much of Labour's support is drifting to the Greens, but the Greens are notoriously poor at getting out the vote on election day. My bet is that the Greens won't poll anywhere near as high as 11% on the day. On the other hand, if I was a gambling man I'd probably be broke by now.