As a Te Atatu resident, and someone actively working to win the seat for Labour and Phil Twyford, I was concerned and surprised at this sudden intrusion on our carefully crafted plans for electoral domination.
But the more I think about it the less it makes sense for Winston to stand in Te Atatu. He can't win the seat, in fact he realistically can't win any seat. His only hope is to reach the 5% threshold by making as much noise as he can.
And then if he manages that feat by some miracle, he will want his party to stitch up a deal with another party. John Key has indicated it won't be National, so that leaves Labour. I'm not a fan of Peters, so working with him would be a particularly large rat for me and other Labour supporters to swallow.
But let's hypothetically say NZ First gets 5%. Labour maybe gets 35%, the Greens get 9%, and suddenly you're looking at a potentially viable government. But the numbers don't work if ACT wins in Epsom and the Nats get say 47%.
So Peters needs to stand somewhere that will potentially harm ACT for this to work.
And to even hope to get 5% Peters needs to stand in a seat where he'll get loads of attention. Because he won't win any electorate seat he stands in.
So that leaves only one logical place for Peters to stand. I'm picking he'll stand in Epsom. That battle will probably be the most watched one during the election campaign.
And if I'm wrong and Peters stands in Te Atatu, splits the centre-left vote and manages to allow that muppet Tau Henare to survive, well that would be ironic. I wouldn't think Peters and Henare are that fond of each other, after the way Henare and others left the party in the '90s.
And if I'm doubly wrong and somehow Winston becomes MP for Te Atatu, I shall devote my life to destroying all of his works. Until that gets boring and I move back to slagging ACT. I can't help myself. It's like a perpetual itch.
It makes sense for Winston to stand in Epsom and generate the most noise but there is no way Winston can win Epsom and I think he honestly believes he can win an electorate. So for that reason he'll probably stand somewhere else.
ReplyDeleteAs a fellow Te Atatu resident, I hope to hell Peters steers well clear of the electorate.
ReplyDeleteI doubt very much that Winston has a deep desire to serve and represent the people of West Auckland. If he wants a soapbox, Epsom would seem the place to stand.
Twyford on the other hand has made a real commitment to the electorate by moving there after winning the candidacy and seems to be doing a lot of ground work in getting to know his community.
Henare will need to do more than verbally bully the new kid on the block if he wants to be a real chance of winning.
There are several winnable electorates out there for Peters. The media and blogs have been too lazy to do their research.
ReplyDeleteOlivia Wix from RNZ had the first original thought with Te Atatu. Everyone else has been mooching off that.
If Peters does what I think he'll do, the media's going to be in for a surprise and NZ will be ready for Peters to be back in parliament after November 26th.
Anon (II), full marks for optimism. But Winston's got no show of winning an electorate seat. The best he can hope for is to stand in a seat that will get him some profile, and target the party vote.
ReplyDeleteWhich seats do you think he can win?