There's no question that the Key government has been taking a hammering in the media. It's also unarguable that some of National's policies are deeply unpopular with the voters. Asset sales, the Crafar Farms issue, the Sky City pokies deal: every time there's a poll on these issues (however unscientific), the results are damning.
So if people hate these policies, why do the polls say it's business as usual for National? The possible options:
- While the populace don't like these policies, voters think the negatives are outweighed by the good things National are doing.
- People don't like National, but they dislike the opposition parties more.
- The polls are unreliable/wrong.
- It takes time for public sentiment on issues like asset sales etc. to show up in polls. People are growing more dissatisfied with things, but it is not yet showing up in their voting choices.
- It's all a media beat-up, and people still love Key and his government.
I don't like this government, which makes me hopelessly biased. However, if you were to ask me to pick what is going on I'd tentatively pick the fourth option. I can't see how one story after another in the media focusing on cronyism and special deals for National's mates can in the end have any effect other than to erode National's support. Good things take time!
But then I would say that. What do you think is going on in the polls?
I'm between 3 and 4, but leaning towards 3. The fact that the polls are largely contradicting each other indicates that there's a problem either with the method (landline polls, which tend to over-represent more affluent areas and middle aged people, as lower income areas and young people often get by on prepaid cellphones) or the application thereof (intentional bias in the sample, focusing calls on electorates that tend to swing right).
ReplyDeleteQuite frankly, I find the suggestion that National won't take a hit after weeks of debate and reports that raise significant questions about the ethics of the party and highlight the failures after 3 and a bit years of a National government to be unbelievable - as in, not believable.
6. The electorate are idiots: they strongly oppose asset sales, and support John Key's National's fight against the nefarious Labour government and its attempts to sell off our land to those dodgy Koreans.
ReplyDeleteSeriously, there is a lot of 6, with a little bit of 1, 2 and 5 thrown in for good measure.
CAS is wrong, by the way. It's definitely not 3. Polls are very consistent, pollsters are aware of landline biases and compensate accordingly, and keep in mind the polls were largely vindicated just 6 months ago (except NZF, which is a separate problem).
ReplyDeleteI suspect it is a mix of 1, 2 and some 3 - more around the way the questions are framed than the polling methods. The feeling I get is that although a number of voters are not happy with asset sales or the Crafar farms thing, they are not deal breakers, i.e. they are things the electorate feel they can live with. The Sky City pokies deal is something I find quite distasteful given the size of NZ's gambling problem, and I strongly disagree with it but I can live with it given some of the other positives that outweigh it
ReplyDeleteThere's only one leader and one party on the Right - that's the difference. Welcome to MMP versus FPP. Lets see a poll that reports on something that actually matters, like Left block versus Right block. The popular Nats are one seat away from a snap election remember, they won the election be "a landslide" by many accounts - well, no, they didn't.
ReplyDeleteMaybe you need another option which says that David Shearer is the wrong person to lead Labour. His wishy washy response to things like Auckland Ports, The Casino convention centre etc do not offer people any real choices that is different from the Government which shows in the polls. Get a leader of the opposition that can encourage Labour to create workable policy that clearly differentiates from that being offered by National and make sure the leader is capable of forcefully speaking on the policy as if he/she believes in it. I cannot for the life of me convey to people just what David Shearer stands for.
ReplyDeleteRon. You are so transparent. Have you not noticed that John Key mostly avoids any potential negative stuff by handing the bad news to his underlings. And yet you appear to hold another leader to another standard.
ReplyDeleteI think the slow insidious nature of public negative opinion will eventually rot National Status, and by then the swinging voters will search for an alternative. Left be ready. So I will have No 4 please.
Every leader since time immemorial has done that what's new?
DeleteI want a government that cares for its people and ensures that health, welfare, education housing etc are provided for. Under present political structure I would be silly to vote anything other than left wing parties.
That said there is something basically wrong with the way labour is structured. It almost needs a back to basics conference to thrash out just what the party stands for. That should have been help early this year but wasn't. Do we have to wait another two years and watch National go into its third term of government before Labour wakes up. If that happens I think it will be too late for labour and maybe a new party that addresses the social concerns of New Zealanders will arise and that would be a shame.
Watching Labour wander aimlessly is a bit like watching great companies like Nokia go from the biggest selling phone company to almost bottom
We need decisive Labour leadership stating clearly what their policies are. Ideally Labour should be template driven so that all policies could be examined to see if they fit with the aims of the Labour movement. if their basic policies support concern for all NZ citizens then they should not be endorsing policies like casinos. Simple to everyone but David Shearer it would seem
As there's only one poll that matters (and the next is scheduled for 2014, for now and acknowledging the "one-seat-majority" comment above), I tend to only look for trends in polls. The trends are still moving away from National and the right. Hence the swarm of right-wing shills trumpeting the "see, National aren't dropping" line. I'd bet their internal polling is telling quite a different story.
ReplyDeleteWhat I've not seen is the % that doesn't know or care - the relatively popular "no vote" party that had a big influence in 2011. Did either of these polls report the size of this category? If not, I'd say these polls are a reflection of the preferences of the people who have a passing interest, or more in politics, which should be relatively static, or move quite slowly.
What's really doing the only good work for National at the moment is the lack of a credible alternative. Which is not so say David Shearer is a useless leader of the opposition; I'll give him another six months before I come to that conclusion. But goddammit I'm sick and tired of the introspective navel-gazing and insipid approaches to what should be some pretty much black and white issues for the main opposition party. The Greens seem to get it, why can't Labour?
I reckon that at the moment Labour will either (a) be the main party in a minority government made up of a diverse range of parties with a slim majority (who might only survive one electoral cycle) or (b) be the main party in a minority government made up of two (or three) parties with an enormous majority, who will survive numerous electoral cycles.
Oh for Option (b)....