There is much angst and waiting, because the latest Roy Morgan poll is really bad for Labour.
The Roy Morgan poll before that one was really good for Labour.
There's a hint for those now panicking. Whatever we may think of David Shearer's overall performance, he didn't become an unelectable muppet overnight.
Polls go up and and polls go down. The Roy Morgan is probably more prone to large swings than the other political polls.
But it's the trend that counts. If a number of polls begin to show National up and Labour down, then Labour supporters may have cause to panic. The trend to date has in fact has shown Labour gaining support.
That doesn't mean everything's fine and that there's no call to be alarmed about Labour's performance. There's plenty to be concerned about. But this poll doesn't on its own tell us anything useful.
Sunday, October 28, 2012
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Top post Scott, the hysteria around polling is now into its sixth year.
ReplyDeleteIt seems to swing from the "poor people don't have landlines" to "rogue poll" but one thing it has all the way through is the sense of wonderment at how angry certain elements of the hard left seem to be.
The "if only the people would wake up" element is a happy byproduct of dry polls.
If people ignore Roy Morgan and laugh at the bizarre Horizon crowd they will sleep better and have less stomach acid.
Are you satirising PG again, Scott?
ReplyDeleteYou accept "concerned", and "alarmed", but reject "panic". So who's panicking? Straw men?
The post by IrishBill that you linked to is not "panic", but a cogent, insighful analysis of Labour's problems. Which parts do you disagree with?
This isn't about one poll. It's about four years, give or take. You know this as well as anyone.
Certainly I agree with some of what IB says, but he also claims its not a rogue poll. I think it's entirely possible that this poll is an outlier and doesn't reflect a broader trend. We won't know until later polls come out.
DeleteMy post was actually directed more at the excitable nature of some of the comments to those Standard posts. Plenty of panic on display.
"The Roy Morgan is probably more prone to large swings than the other political polls."
ReplyDeleteI don't think this is true. Roy Morgan polls four times as often as anyone else, which makes the variability easier to see, and the "smaller" variability of the other polls is just an optical illusion.
I think the trend had started to go Labour's way...but i think it has paused for the moment. Maybe if Labour get their act together things might start to set in. I think that Labour is having to deal with a strengthened Green Party and the return of Winnie. THey are having to fight for air time not only with the government, but also with Greens and NZ First....who are both good at grabbing headlines!
ReplyDeleteImagine there were no polls.
ReplyDeleteIs anybody happy with the way Labour is performing?
Has Mr Shearer, at any stage, looked like a Prime Minister-in-waiting?
Is any Labour spokesman bettering the National Minister?
What should be Labour's polling, given its performance?
20%?
30%?
40%?
50%?
So who is right , and which is wrong?
The actual polls, or Labour's self-appraisal?
Maybe we all know the answer.