David Shearer will almost certainly receive a 100% endorsement from his caucus when they meet to vote on his leadership today.
This will horrify some on the left who are convinced Shearer is a liability and must go. Personally I don't care any more, because there doesn't really seem to be an end to the criticism of Labour's leader, and what good does it do? Is anyone listening?
Surely now all of Shearer's many faults and flaws have been exposed and discussed at length, unless Chris Trotter is holding back more dynamite. Perhaps we'll learn that Shearer was the mastermind behind George Bush's War on Terror, sleeps in a coffin, and has been carrying on a torrid and secret romance with Rodney Hide for the last decade.
Barring any such revelations, or some other unforeseeable event, David Shearer will take Labour into the 2014 election.
But will today's 100% endorsement silence the dissent? Certainly not! It's not how we do things on the left. Our noble tradition of infighting needs to be honoured.
Tradition is important, which is why I wouldn't dream of suggesting that Labour people just get in behind their leader for the good of the party, because someone will then accuse me of trying to shut down debate, even though the debate has become tedious, and even though nobody really has anything interesting to add to it.
I also wouldn't dream of suggesting that some people might be better off either coming to terms with Shearer's leadership or finding something better to do with their time, because if I did that someone somewhere would probably have hurt feelings.
And even though I've even been told that there are other parties on the left (imagine that!), I certainly wouldn't advocate that people disgusted or dismayed by Labour (for whatever reason) go off and join one of those other parties rather than stay inside the tent and piss all over the people around them.
We shouldn't also discount the possibility that some of those dissenters we're hearing so much from actually want Labour to lose in 2014. Some of these people will be of the "destroy the village in order to save it" variety, while others will simply be guided by personal ambition or petty spite. It would make sense for these people to keep the debate going. The 2014 election could be close, and John Key may need all the help he can get.
Monday, February 4, 2013
11 comments:
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Will this one get a repost on The Standard?
ReplyDeleteProbably not, but it will definitely get a repost on Recess Monkey... (assuming Scott doesn't mind?!)
DeleteGo for it. Spread the word.
DeleteAnd it would appear that most of the people advocating "destroy the village to save the village" don't actually live in the village in question.
ReplyDeleteThe problem is Deckard, that many do. It's a matter of convincing the gorgeous people. It'll probably just have to wait till an election though - which isn't such a bad thing
DeleteAre you serious with that last paragraph? It's the current leadership who are more concerned with personal ambitions and holding onto power, even if it means Labour will lose the next election because Shearer can't attack, debate, speak or articulate a political vision.
ReplyDeleteOpposition to Shearer seems to be mostly motivated by wanting a Labour victory - which should be taken in its fullest meaning; ie wanting Labour to win, but also wanting the Labour that wins to actually stand for Labour principles. Resigned acceptance of him (like yours) seems to be mostly motivated by a lack of hope for constructive change with internal Labour politics the way they are, and the idea that ending the debate is the best way for a Labour victory (in a narrower sense) in 2014. Defense and support of Shearer seems to be mostly motivated by "Anyone but Cunliffe" feeling - which should also be taken in its fullest meaning; ie "3 more years of Key rather than Cunliffe".
Are you serious with that last paragraph?
DeleteEntirely. The leadership question has now been decided, and there won't be another vote on the leadership before the election, barring some unforeseeable event. So by all means continue to debate who should be Labour's leader, but only if a Labour victory in 2014 isn't a priority.
Scott says:
ReplyDelete"Surely now all of Shearer's many faults and flaws have been exposed and discussed at length."
I'm afraid this is a basic insider error. It's certainly true of the political blogosphere, it's certainly not true of the wider public (Exhibit A: the recent poll of Maori voters, most not even knowing who Shearer is). Of course, it is the public who decide elections.
Shearer's "faults and flaws" will be seen by many voters for the first time in an election campaign. Since these faults include the inability to say something that makes sense, and to explain his party's own policies, the voters are unlikely to be impressed.
Yes, Shearer may turn out to be a liability during the election campaign. Or he may not. So what do we do now? He's not going to be dumped as leader before the election.
DeleteHe's not going to be dumped as leader before the election.
ReplyDeleteDumped? No, he doesn't have to be. Come on, you can write the press release yourself ...
"I want to thank David Shearer ... outstanding contribution ... his own decision ... spend more time with his family ... did not seek this ... but will allow my name to go forward ..."
Do you seriously believe that Grant Robertson (and Little and anybody else) will just sit back and watch Shearer chuck victory away, along with their own prospects? Leadership issues aren't "settled" by a vote, or by rules, they're settled by the leader's performance. If you believe that Shearer will now perform, fine (that's wildly optimistic, but your call). But you can't seriously believe that if he fails to perform, he's safe regardless. He could "volunteer" to step down at any time, no leader can survive the loss of confidence from his MPs.
But you can't seriously believe that if he fails to perform, he's safe regardless.
DeleteBarring a major collapse in Labour's polling before the election campaign I'd say Shearer is completely safe.
There's no reason to think Labour's polling is going to collapse before the 2014 election campaign. At worst it might stay about where it is, which will be enough for those who installed him to think "we're a fighting chance with the help of the Greens and NZF". Shearer is safe.