A special thank-you to Richard Prosser

We've all been giving Richard Prosser such a hard time this week, but he's actually done us a favour.

Thanks to Prosser's intemperate language and offensive views on race and religion, bigots have been flushed out from all sorts of hiding places.  He has made a fool of his publisher, Ian Wishart, and left various knuckleheads who usually agree wholeheartedly with his views scrambling to defend themselves on blogs and other forms of social media.

Even The King Must Follow The Rules

So Brendan Horan has been booted out of New Zealand First’s caucus, but does he remain a member of the party?

In fact it seems reasonably clear that he does, until his party membership is formally terminated by NZ First’s board, but someone might need to tell Winston that.

"You talkin' to me?"

Hayden Donnell of the Herald reports:

New Zealand First leader Winston Peters has refused to say whether he backs one of his new MP's calls to ban the burqa and arm taxi drivers.

Richard Prosser, who is ranked number four on the New Zealand First list, has been publishing his thinking for nearly 10 years in his Eyes Right column in Ian Wishart's Investigate magazine.

I am delighted that, with the demise of ACT and the disappearance from Parliament of oddballs and eccentrics like John Boscawen and Hillary Calvert, NZ First is stepping up and filling the void.

Satirists need have nothing to fear from the new Parliament, even if Muslim women now do.

Mr Prosser wishes to arm taxi drivers, presumably so that in the event of a fare dispute the driver is able to protect himself by blowing the brains of the passenger all over the back window.

As an aside, does anyone know if drivers plan to charge the estate of the deceased disputant for soiling the cab? If not, murdering their passengers in a frenzied and bloody rampage may just not be worth the inconvenience for drivers.

When a person steps into a cab they entrust their life to a complete stranger. Sometimes their life really does hang in the balance. I have been the terrified subject of more than one or two crazy taxi rides in various parts of the world, and in places like Cairo you really are risking your life when you step into a cab.

But I would much rather take a ride in a cab driven by a Cairo coke-fiend than be the passenger of a Kiwi car where the driver is packing heat.

Surely the oddest thing about this Herald story is the headline. When did Winston refusing to answer journalists’ questions become newsworthy? A headline like “Winston gives straight answer to question” would be more shocking.

Hopelessly Wrong Again

Only a few days ago I was on Twitter writing off Winston Peters’ chances in this year’s general election.

And yet I’m now starting to think the old warhorse may have one more fight left in him and that he will prove me wrong.

A Peters victory after I was so dismissive of his chances will make me look like a right dick. So you probably won't be able to notice any difference.

There’s not a dog-whistle that Peters hasn’t blown at some point, and if you can find an act of shamefaced hypocrisy he hasn’t engaged in during his time in politics then you’re a more perceptive person than me. Peters’ constant attacks on the media are also tiresome and cynical, at least in my eyes.

But try telling that to the folks who love him.

The interesting thing about NZ First is that if they do get 5% we’ll see a whole bunch of people going into Parliament that most of us have never heard of. How many of you (excluding party faithful) can name a single person on the NZ First list other than Winston? And don’t Google the list, because that’s cheating.

A week ago I was convinced NZ First’s decision not to go into government was purely academic, because Peters’ party had no show of returning to Parliament.

But once again the pundits are being shown up for the fools they are, myself included. NZ First appears to be creeping up in the polls, and Peters appears to be getting plenty of media attention.

Peters seems to be on something of a roll. Labour’s vote doesn’t seem to be on the rise, and it may be that people will look for alternative parties to give their votes to when they enter the polling booth.

Let’s think this through. Depending on which poll you rely on, Labour and the Greens between them seem to be on between 40-42% of the vote. Add another 5-6% if NZ First gets in and you’re looking at a potential government in waiting.

Those who think this won’t happen because Peters has ruled out any deal should cast their minds back to 2005. Peters said much the same thing during the 2005 election campaign, then decided to work with Labour anyway.

National will continue to terrify the voters of New Zealand into thinking that if they don’t vote for a majority National government Winston Peters will get in, and the heavens will then proceed to rain fire, and death will sweep across the land. This ignores that fact that the last coalition government with NZ First was actually a stable one, even if Peters had disgraced himself thoroughly by the end of it.

Some people may find the prospect of Winston Peters yet again being the kingmaker a terrifying one. But who would you rather held the balance of power? Winston Peters or Don Brash? Voters might have much more to fear from the cynical “cup of tea” between National and ACT, if a deal between those two parties leaves ACT with the ability to keep National from power.

NZ First's New Youth-Friendly Face

Winston Peters has used a speech at the New Zealand First conference to signal that the party will focus more on policies for the young.

Mr Peters acknowledged in his speech that for too long NZ First has been seen as a bastion for the elderly or senile.

Mr Peters said he was determined to move the party firmly into the 20th century.

Mr Peters used the speech to announce a range of youth-friendly policies and party initiatives. They include:

• Educational funding: young people wanting to take courses in needlework, knitting or home baking will have tuition fees fully paid by the government.
• Free dentist visits for the young: The party will make some dental procedures free of charge. Denture fittings will now be paid for by the government.
• Social media: installing a telex machine in every electoral office will make it easier for technology-savvy young people to stay in touch with the party.
• Health: more resources will be put into cutting hip operation waiting lists for the under-20s.
• Personal grooming: a number of state-funded barber shops will be established around the country, in order to keep the cost of a trim affordable. So now there will be no excuse to grow that hair long and scruffy.
• Environmental policy: Young people are typically passionate about the environment, ecology and conservation. In order to preserve precious grasslands for future generations, nobody will be allowed to walk on anyone else’s lawn.
• Establishing a youth wing of the party for the under 80s.

But the announcement received a mixed reception at the conference.

Party stalwart Margot Kneebrock said she was impressed by Peters' speech, even though she had not heard a word of it.

"I'm deaf in one ear!" she yelled. "Speak up! Winston, did you say? Oh yes, we love our Winston! Marvellous!"

And Barry McLingle of Tauranga said he was against young people getting any sort of special treatment.

"When I was a young man making my way in the world," began Mr McLingle before trailing off into a lengthy monologue about world affairs and the evils of China, and then falling asleep in a chair.

The conference winds up today, after a lunch of gravy and mashed potatoes

Polls Closing, And Tight Contest Looking More Probable

I hadn’t managed to comment on the most recent political poll until now, but it suggests that the November election could be a tight contest.

After the last Roy Morgan Poll David Farrar observed that National had dropped only 2% over the last three years, while support for Labour had increased by 3%. Farrar gleefully wrote: 

If that rate continued it would not be until almost 2020 that Labour outpolled National.

Yet in last week’s Herald Digipoll the gap between the two main parties reduced from 21.7% to 15.1% in one month.

If that rate continues Labour will be outpolling National by October.

I’m not for a moment suggesting that such a thing will happen. It does illustrate, though, how erratic the polls can be.

Labour wouldn’t necessarily need to catch National in the polls to govern after the election, because it has more coalition options. If the Greens can get 8% of the vote and Labour can move up another 5-6% the election may come down to the wire. The common wisdom six months ago was that Labour had no show without Winston Peters. But since then ACT and the Maori Party have imploded. A Peters-less parliament could still have a Labour government by the end of 2011.

That really isn’t as unlikely as some people may think. The Greens are somewhere between 6-10% in most polls, and Labour’s recently been scoring in the mid-30s. A strong election campaign could see them pick up more support. They haven’t yet released any major policy, so if they can come up with good policies that are well-costed they could see their numbers moving up.

The Nats aren’t without options of their own, but none of them are sure things. The ACT brand is so tarnished that there’s no telling what the folk of Epsom might do, and the Maori Party is likely to take a pounding in November. Peter Dunne’s seat is marginal, and Labour will push hard to win it this year.

The biggest uncertainty is the Rugby World Cup and whether it will affect the political mood of the nation. Nobody knows yet.

The election promises to be a gripping contest, whatever happens.

The Electorate Battle Where Everyone Knows Everyone

The battle for the Epsom electorate is looking more uncertain than ever.

John Banks is the ACT candidate, but the two leading contenders for the National Party candidacy have previously worked closely with Banks.

Aaron Bhatnagar, one of the candidates, was John Banks' mayoral campaign manager, while the other candidate, Paul Goldsmith, was Banks' biographer.

To make matters more confusing, Goldsmith also wrote the biography of Don Brash, the leader of ACT.

It is yet to be seen whether National will push hard to win Epsom. If the gap between National and Labour closes before November (as I suspect it will), the Nats will be tempted to do a deal with ACT and campaign solely for the party vote. But the people putting their hands up for National are potentially strong candidates.

Even if Banks wins, on current polling he won't bring more than a couple of others into Parliament. They will likely all be rich old white guys. Not exactly the party for the future. Don Brash's promise of getting ACT to 15% looks even more preposterous than when he first made it. It must be heartbreaking for a politician like Brash to discover that most people actively hate him.

If one of Banks' mates gets the nod for National it will make an accommodation all that much easier.

A couple of other factors make the race even more uncertain. One is the left-vote factor. If I were a Labour voter in the electorate (and in the 2008 general election the Labour candidate got over 5000 votes) I'd vote strategically for the National candidate.

The other factor is Winston Peters. There has been speculation that he could run in Epsom, for no other reason than to make life difficult for ACT. But that was before Rodney Hide was dumped. With Hide gone I don't see any great benefit in NZ First running a strong candidate in Epsom, because it's likely NZ First would take more votes off National than it would ACT. Given that National won't work with Winston Peters, NZ First is in the perverse position of wanting National to win Epson so as to ensure National has few other options to form a government.

So the Epsom race will probably be the most fascinating of all electorate battles, barring Te Atatu, of course. But then I would say that.

A Labour Victory In 2011? Unlikely

Matt McCarten has written in the Herald on Sunday about what he sees as the very real possibility of a centre-left government by the end of 2011.

This is surprising for two reasons:

1. I paid money for today’s Herald on Sunday. Actually, to be fair, my wife bought it and told me to shut up when I whined about how I wanted something to read that lasted more than three minutes. Fair enough. I was wrong. There’s a bumper crossword in this week’s edition.
2. I might have agreed with McCarten a couple of months ago (I vaguely recall making a not dissimilar prediction in the distant days of ’10), but the polls just aren’t moving for Labour, and I thought that National’s ratings might have started to soften by the end of the year. They haven’t to any noticeable extent. Labour and its allies can spin it how they want, but the fact remains that the Nats will have to work hard to lose the next election, unless there is a game-changer, such as a leadership change, a personal scandal, or an unexpected financial disaster.

McCarten’s reasoning is that the Nats face the real prospect of having no support parties on the right, and that Labour’s potential support party options are more numerous.

If National’s polling holds up they might get an outright majority. But the history of elections in this country suggests that is unlikely. What is more likely, given current polling, is that support for the Nats will soften slightly, but will still be in the mid-late 40s. Given that fact it won’t take much for National to retain power.

So for Labour to form the next government all or most of the following would need to occur at the next election:

• ACT to either disappear or gain insufficient seats to be of assistance. During the height of the David Garrett/Heather Roy debacles I was convinced ACT was a goner in 2011. I still think it unlikely that Hide will win Epsom, though perhaps the odds are maybe 70-30 against that now. Hide has wisely kept a low profile in recent months, and when the good folk of Epsom consider the potential of a centre-left government (the horror! The horror!) they may just find themselves willing to forgive ACT. My pick is that National will run a candidate in ACT, but someone as insipid as Richard Worth was. If Hide does scrape in, ACT might bring in a couple of seats. Probably not the five they have at present, if current polling is any guide, but possibly enough on their own to get the Nats across the line.
• Peter Dunne to lose his electorate seat. It’s a possibility. Dunne’s majority in 2008 was just over 1000, and it’s possible Charles Chauvel will roll him this time. But only a possibility.
• Greens to do well. The Greens will probably exceed the 5% threshold, but their polling is always strong except when it counts (i.e. election night). Labour and the Greens could still be struggling to pull together 40% between them.
• New Zealand First to get in. This is a tall order. A couple of polls have indicated that NZ First is close to the 5% threshold, but most polls have them sitting around 2%. Many people have not forgiven or forgotten Winston’s hypocrisy, and, while I won’t write Peters off, I wouldn’t put money on a return to Parliament by him.
• Maori Party to side with Labour. There is too much bad blood between Maori Party and Labour leadership to make this a strong possibility, barring leadership changes. If given the choice I suspect the Maori Party would prefer to stay with the Nats.

Given the above, stitching together a workable government looks like more of a challenge for Labour than it does the Nats.

So I do not share Matt McCarten’s optimism. On the other hand, trying to predict what will happen in politics is a mug’s game. Anything can happen.

Winston's Technologies

Now we all know what the typical demographic of the New Zealand First supporter is.

Nevertheless the news over the weekend that Winston has new technologies at hand to help relaunch the party, will excite even the most elderly of New Zealand First's supporters. And when you consider that most of these folk haven't felt excited since that nice young Mr Holmes was on the telly every night, you realise what a defining moment for the party this is.

Now the party will be able send communications to members and the media more efficiently.


Party faithful will be able to listen to Winston from their own living rooms.


New transportation devices will ensure Winston and his team can travel around the country faster.
And wherever he goes Winston will be in constant contact.

These changes will bring NZ First back into the 20th century.