A special thank-you to Richard Prosser

We've all been giving Richard Prosser such a hard time this week, but he's actually done us a favour.

Thanks to Prosser's intemperate language and offensive views on race and religion, bigots have been flushed out from all sorts of hiding places.  He has made a fool of his publisher, Ian Wishart, and left various knuckleheads who usually agree wholeheartedly with his views scrambling to defend themselves on blogs and other forms of social media.

Even The King Must Follow The Rules

So Brendan Horan has been booted out of New Zealand First’s caucus, but does he remain a member of the party?

In fact it seems reasonably clear that he does, until his party membership is formally terminated by NZ First’s board, but someone might need to tell Winston that.

Hopelessly Wrong Again

Only a few days ago I was on Twitter writing off Winston Peters’ chances in this year’s general election.

And yet I’m now starting to think the old warhorse may have one more fight left in him and that he will prove me wrong.

A Peters victory after I was so dismissive of his chances will make me look like a right dick. So you probably won't be able to notice any difference.

There’s not a dog-whistle that Peters hasn’t blown at some point, and if you can find an act of shamefaced hypocrisy he hasn’t engaged in during his time in politics then you’re a more perceptive person than me. Peters’ constant attacks on the media are also tiresome and cynical, at least in my eyes.

But try telling that to the folks who love him.

The interesting thing about NZ First is that if they do get 5% we’ll see a whole bunch of people going into Parliament that most of us have never heard of. How many of you (excluding party faithful) can name a single person on the NZ First list other than Winston? And don’t Google the list, because that’s cheating.

A week ago I was convinced NZ First’s decision not to go into government was purely academic, because Peters’ party had no show of returning to Parliament.

But once again the pundits are being shown up for the fools they are, myself included. NZ First appears to be creeping up in the polls, and Peters appears to be getting plenty of media attention.

Peters seems to be on something of a roll. Labour’s vote doesn’t seem to be on the rise, and it may be that people will look for alternative parties to give their votes to when they enter the polling booth.

Let’s think this through. Depending on which poll you rely on, Labour and the Greens between them seem to be on between 40-42% of the vote. Add another 5-6% if NZ First gets in and you’re looking at a potential government in waiting.

Those who think this won’t happen because Peters has ruled out any deal should cast their minds back to 2005. Peters said much the same thing during the 2005 election campaign, then decided to work with Labour anyway.

National will continue to terrify the voters of New Zealand into thinking that if they don’t vote for a majority National government Winston Peters will get in, and the heavens will then proceed to rain fire, and death will sweep across the land. This ignores that fact that the last coalition government with NZ First was actually a stable one, even if Peters had disgraced himself thoroughly by the end of it.

Some people may find the prospect of Winston Peters yet again being the kingmaker a terrifying one. But who would you rather held the balance of power? Winston Peters or Don Brash? Voters might have much more to fear from the cynical “cup of tea” between National and ACT, if a deal between those two parties leaves ACT with the ability to keep National from power.

National’s New Irrigation Scheme

The National Party yesterday announced a new irrigation scheme to be funded from the Future Investment Fund.

National has pledged to establish the Future Investment Fund to manage the proceeds from the sale of state assets, and has committed to use that fund for future infrastructure investment.

Prime Minister John Key claims that the fund will hold between $5-7 billion, depending on how much is realised from the sale of state assets.

Mr Key has now pledged to put aside $400 million towards a colonic irrigation fund.

“The proposed scheme will make money available for critical projects of major importance,” said Mr Key.

“It will allow us to reduce blockages in the system and get things moving again.”

But New Zealand First leader Winston Peters last night launched a scathing attack on the plan.

“National won’t stop until foreign instruments have infiltrated the bottoms of every single hardworking New Zealander,” said Mr Peters.

Mr Peters denied he was whipping up sentiment against foreign intruders.

“Look, that’s ridiculous nonsense and you know it. Why don’t you do your homework for a change?

“In 2008 almost half the people who voted for New Zealand First wore catheters or colostomy bags.”

Winston For Te Atatu?

Rumours are circulating that Winston Peters will stand for Te Atatu in the upcoming general election.

As a Te Atatu resident, and someone actively working to win the seat for Labour and Phil Twyford, I was concerned and surprised at this sudden intrusion on our carefully crafted plans for electoral domination.

But the more I think about it the less it makes sense for Winston to stand in Te Atatu. He can't win the seat, in fact he realistically can't win any seat. His only hope is to reach the 5% threshold by making as much noise as he can.

And then if he manages that feat by some miracle, he will want his party to stitch up a deal with another party. John Key has indicated it won't be National, so that leaves Labour. I'm not a fan of Peters, so working with him would be a particularly large rat for me and other Labour supporters to swallow.

But let's hypothetically say NZ First gets 5%. Labour maybe gets 35%, the Greens get 9%, and suddenly you're looking at a potentially viable government. But the numbers don't work if ACT wins in Epsom and the Nats get say 47%.

So Peters needs to stand somewhere that will potentially harm ACT for this to work.

And to even hope to get 5% Peters needs to stand in a seat where he'll get loads of attention. Because he won't win any electorate seat he stands in.

So that leaves only one logical place for Peters to stand. I'm picking he'll stand in Epsom. That battle will probably be the most watched one during the election campaign.

And if I'm wrong and Peters stands in Te Atatu, splits the centre-left vote and manages to allow that muppet Tau Henare to survive, well that would be ironic. I wouldn't think Peters and Henare are that fond of each other, after the way Henare and others left the party in the '90s.

And if I'm doubly wrong and somehow Winston becomes MP for Te Atatu, I shall devote my life to destroying all of his works. Until that gets boring and I move back to slagging ACT. I can't help myself. It's like a perpetual itch.

NZ First's New Youth-Friendly Face

Winston Peters has used a speech at the New Zealand First conference to signal that the party will focus more on policies for the young.

Mr Peters acknowledged in his speech that for too long NZ First has been seen as a bastion for the elderly or senile.

Mr Peters said he was determined to move the party firmly into the 20th century.

Mr Peters used the speech to announce a range of youth-friendly policies and party initiatives. They include:

• Educational funding: young people wanting to take courses in needlework, knitting or home baking will have tuition fees fully paid by the government.
• Free dentist visits for the young: The party will make some dental procedures free of charge. Denture fittings will now be paid for by the government.
• Social media: installing a telex machine in every electoral office will make it easier for technology-savvy young people to stay in touch with the party.
• Health: more resources will be put into cutting hip operation waiting lists for the under-20s.
• Personal grooming: a number of state-funded barber shops will be established around the country, in order to keep the cost of a trim affordable. So now there will be no excuse to grow that hair long and scruffy.
• Environmental policy: Young people are typically passionate about the environment, ecology and conservation. In order to preserve precious grasslands for future generations, nobody will be allowed to walk on anyone else’s lawn.
• Establishing a youth wing of the party for the under 80s.

But the announcement received a mixed reception at the conference.

Party stalwart Margot Kneebrock said she was impressed by Peters' speech, even though she had not heard a word of it.

"I'm deaf in one ear!" she yelled. "Speak up! Winston, did you say? Oh yes, we love our Winston! Marvellous!"

And Barry McLingle of Tauranga said he was against young people getting any sort of special treatment.

"When I was a young man making my way in the world," began Mr McLingle before trailing off into a lengthy monologue about world affairs and the evils of China, and then falling asleep in a chair.

The conference winds up today, after a lunch of gravy and mashed potatoes

Polls Closing, And Tight Contest Looking More Probable

I hadn’t managed to comment on the most recent political poll until now, but it suggests that the November election could be a tight contest.

After the last Roy Morgan Poll David Farrar observed that National had dropped only 2% over the last three years, while support for Labour had increased by 3%. Farrar gleefully wrote: 

If that rate continued it would not be until almost 2020 that Labour outpolled National.

Yet in last week’s Herald Digipoll the gap between the two main parties reduced from 21.7% to 15.1% in one month.

If that rate continues Labour will be outpolling National by October.

I’m not for a moment suggesting that such a thing will happen. It does illustrate, though, how erratic the polls can be.

Labour wouldn’t necessarily need to catch National in the polls to govern after the election, because it has more coalition options. If the Greens can get 8% of the vote and Labour can move up another 5-6% the election may come down to the wire. The common wisdom six months ago was that Labour had no show without Winston Peters. But since then ACT and the Maori Party have imploded. A Peters-less parliament could still have a Labour government by the end of 2011.

That really isn’t as unlikely as some people may think. The Greens are somewhere between 6-10% in most polls, and Labour’s recently been scoring in the mid-30s. A strong election campaign could see them pick up more support. They haven’t yet released any major policy, so if they can come up with good policies that are well-costed they could see their numbers moving up.

The Nats aren’t without options of their own, but none of them are sure things. The ACT brand is so tarnished that there’s no telling what the folk of Epsom might do, and the Maori Party is likely to take a pounding in November. Peter Dunne’s seat is marginal, and Labour will push hard to win it this year.

The biggest uncertainty is the Rugby World Cup and whether it will affect the political mood of the nation. Nobody knows yet.

The election promises to be a gripping contest, whatever happens.

Not So Fun When Someone Else Gets All The Attention

Over on Kiwiblog David Farrar whines:

I am curious as to why the media think it is their job to try and help Winston Peters back into Parliament, just because it means that they get more interesting stories.

What I mean, is the media overkill that reports almost every utterance from Winston. Every speech to a room of oldies or students results in stories. An off the cuff comment about how he is not ruling out Helensville gets reported breathlessly on TV as a major story. Hello – what is news worthy about a guy who had a 30 year old beat him by 10,000 votes in his own former seat, speculate he may stand in a seat where the majority is 20,000 and he would be lucky to get his deposit back

Until the mood of the media started to change a couple of months ago, they were uncritically reporting almost every trivial thing Key said or did. They were effectively campaigning for Key.

I don't recall at the time reading or hearing any objections from Farrar about that.

Winston won't win Helensville in 2011 (he may not even come second), but may still make a nuisance of himself, and he is clearly out to get National. Like many other National Party strategists, Farrar has probably been having night terrors about the "Winston Factor" next year.

Up until a couple of weeks ago I'd have said National had next year's election in the bag. But with ACT's very public self-destruction, and with Winston starting to get some traction in the polls, things may get a bit tricky. The election's still National's to lose, but if NZ First makes it in and ACT doesn't, Labour may have more coalition options than National.

God, Just Do Your Job, Goddammit!

Please, God, don't let this happen.

Speculation is rife that NZ First leader Winston Peters and his former adviser Michael Laws are to team up again as part of a "relaunch" of the party this year. 

Neither Mr Laws, who is to stand down as Whanganui mayor this year, nor Mr Peters would confirm the rumours. But MPs from both sides of the House and sources close to NZ First said they were aware of plans.

You need to sort this out, and quickly. Please don't forsake us in our hour of need.

I know you are a busy God, what with all that smiting and turning people into pillars of salt, so you probably don't appreciate what a truly awful piece of humanity this Laws fellow is. Let me assure you that he is not fit to hold public office. Please, take my word for it. When have I ever let you down?

Oh, you mean apart from all the times I made fun of your followers? So I'm not perfect.

And I know I am generally dismissive of anyone who frames their life around a belief in the Great Sky Fairy. But come on, you have to admit The God Delusion is a cracking read.

Anyway, let's move on, as Tony Blair would say. Forget the past, because I need you now. You can't let this happen. You need to do something. ,

The Lord shall smite thee with a consumption, and with a fever, and with an inflammation, and with an extreme burning, and with the sword, and with blasting, and with mildew; and they shall pursue thee until thou perish.

Your words, not mine. I'm not saying that's what you should do, because, man, that's just some crazy shit.

But you need to do something.

God, it's time to step up to the plate. You've not been keeping up with business. Have you seen the mess in the Middle East? You're lucky we don't vote for you because you'd be toast come election time.

Dude, sort it out!

Dog-Whistling Up Some Votes

The Dom Post reports:

Maori Party policies are racially divisive and will turn New Zealand into the Zimbabwe of the South Pacific, NZ First leader Winston Peters has claimed.

Mr Peters used a speech to Wanganui Grey Power to launch a stinging attack on the party, targeting renegade MP Hone Harawira's "white motherf.....s" email and the looming repeal of the foreshore and seabed law.

"We should beware of any ethnic or religious group that seeks power.

In his prime Winston Peters was like a crocodile in the mud, waiting for some poor animal to venture into the water. Many a politician fell victim to his sharp tongue and muck throwing.

But that was a few years ago. Now he just comes across as desperately opportunistic. He sees a brown man being widely attacked for racism, and hopes some of the anger directed against Harawira will translate into votes for NZ First.

But it's not enough to attack Maori. There are other non-whites to slam:

But while accusing Mr Harawira of sowing racial division, he also launched into the growing Asian population, which he said was projected to hit 400,000 in Auckland in seven years.

He said increased Asian immigration and a growing trend towards multiculturalism was a "force for disintegration".

He referred to studies he claimed showed many people born under China's one child policy who now lived here were using immigration policies to bring in their parents and grandparents, turning New Zealand into a rest home for Asian pensioners.

I've yet to hear a compelling reason why the small number of immigration we permit from Asia is a bad thing. Are Asians "bad people"? They talk funny and look funny. So? They drive badly. Wait, there is actually no evidence to back that up.  They drive up house prices. So do UK immigrants.

Most Asian immigrants are hard workers and contribute enormously to the country. We need more immigration, not less.

We've heard this dog-whistle before. Thankfully most people recognise it for what it is - a desperate attempt by a cynic to return to power.

Winston's luck ran out last election. I wouldn't completely discount a return to Parliament, but nor do I expect it. He would need to lose some of the arrogance and swagger that so disgusted the electorate in 2008.

Look Who Else Is Back

And what has changed? From the Stuff website:

New Zealand had suffered a "tsunami" of immigrants, he said, and large scale immigration could not be justified when 140,000 people were out of work.

He said the country was being taken for a sucker and immigrants were not needed in many occupations. Some immigrants were using New Zealand as a "transit camp" before moving to Australia.

The burden of immigrants on welfare and pensions was bemoaned.

"These people are feasting on your pension pie ... the pension pie you and other Kiwis paid for."

Other topics included the perils of foreign ownership and the importance of agriculture to the economy.

Mr Peters said New Zealand needed to be wary of foreigners buying agricultural assets and "hovering" around Fonterra.

The kiwifruit industry was "being stalked by jackals".

Not much then.

The use of the word "tsunami" is deliberate and cynical. Peters is using a tragedy for political gain.

Peters stokes up this racist hate every time he's down. It will give him a lift in the polls and some profile. He only needs one in twenty voters to go for it next election, and he's back in Parliament, possibly as kingmaker.

Depressing.

Winston's Technologies

Now we all know what the typical demographic of the New Zealand First supporter is.

Nevertheless the news over the weekend that Winston has new technologies at hand to help relaunch the party, will excite even the most elderly of New Zealand First's supporters. And when you consider that most of these folk haven't felt excited since that nice young Mr Holmes was on the telly every night, you realise what a defining moment for the party this is.

Now the party will be able send communications to members and the media more efficiently.


Party faithful will be able to listen to Winston from their own living rooms.


New transportation devices will ensure Winston and his team can travel around the country faster.
And wherever he goes Winston will be in constant contact.

These changes will bring NZ First back into the 20th century.