- That's not what I'm hearing when I'm out and about talking to ordinary people.
- Something or other about how fixed phonelines skew the results.
Showing posts with label polls. Show all posts
Showing posts with label polls. Show all posts
Thursday, February 28, 2013
Ten reasons for Labour people not to worry about the polls
Wednesday, February 20, 2013
Sunday, December 30, 2012
Did Trevor Do It?
 |
| Did Trevor Mallard skip out of Wiggles touring duties to rig a poll result? |
This should not be happening. If the many commenters and bloggers on The Standard and elsewhere are to be believed, Shearer's leadership dooms Labour to many more years in opposition.
So what's going on? Is it a rogue poll? Or has someone in Labour somehow rigged the results? But who would do such a thing, and how?
My pick would be Trevor Mallard. Don't ask me how he did it, but he gets the blame for pretty much everything else and he's thick-skinned, so let's just blame Trevor for this result. He won't mind.
Sunday, August 5, 2012
Why The Polls Are Bad For Labour
Another round of polls is upon us, and the news is all good for National and dire for Labour and the Greens.
With the last Roy Morgan Poll also showing National up, it's fair to assume that public opinion has shifted once more in favour of National.
Why is this? Everyone will have their own theory, but I'm not particularly surprised that Labour are down. They haven't really done much in recent weeks to justify a rise in the polls, and their leader's performances to date have been tentative and unconvincing.
David Shearer may well grow into the leader's role, and I have previously written that he needs to be given at least a year to perform, so I'm not about to call for his replacement. On the other hand, it would be nice to hear him speak about something, anything, with a bit of conviction. When David Shearer gives one of his big speeches about how New Zealand could be like Finland or Denmark, he may as well be talking about Narnia. It means nothing to most traditional Labour voters.
Above all Labour must focus on the issues that influence voting decisions, if they wish to win in 2014. Most people hate asset sales, but they hated them in 2011 when National announced the asset sales policy. It's clear that most voters in the 2011 election weren't motivated by the issue of asset sales, because if they had been National would not have been returned to office. Labour's decision to focus most of its energy on forcing a referendum on asset sales, rather than on winning back the people who didn't bother voting for Labour last time, seems risky.
Labour Party strategists will be hoping the reality of the asset sales plan eventually dawns on voters, and that opposition to the plan results in a shift in support towards the centre-left. But many of the people who traditionally vote Labour but didn't in 2008 or 2011 will have more important things on their minds. Things like affordable housing, the rising cost of living, and unemployment. Those are the issues Labour must target relentlessly.
I don't subscribe to the view that Labour is ultimately doomed, but the party has lost its way and appears to be unable to clearly explain to voters what it stands for. What it needs now above all else is strong leadership, and a renewed focus on the things that matter to those traditional Labour supporters who didn't bother to vote in 2008 or 2011.
With the last Roy Morgan Poll also showing National up, it's fair to assume that public opinion has shifted once more in favour of National.
Why is this? Everyone will have their own theory, but I'm not particularly surprised that Labour are down. They haven't really done much in recent weeks to justify a rise in the polls, and their leader's performances to date have been tentative and unconvincing.
David Shearer may well grow into the leader's role, and I have previously written that he needs to be given at least a year to perform, so I'm not about to call for his replacement. On the other hand, it would be nice to hear him speak about something, anything, with a bit of conviction. When David Shearer gives one of his big speeches about how New Zealand could be like Finland or Denmark, he may as well be talking about Narnia. It means nothing to most traditional Labour voters.
Above all Labour must focus on the issues that influence voting decisions, if they wish to win in 2014. Most people hate asset sales, but they hated them in 2011 when National announced the asset sales policy. It's clear that most voters in the 2011 election weren't motivated by the issue of asset sales, because if they had been National would not have been returned to office. Labour's decision to focus most of its energy on forcing a referendum on asset sales, rather than on winning back the people who didn't bother voting for Labour last time, seems risky.
Labour Party strategists will be hoping the reality of the asset sales plan eventually dawns on voters, and that opposition to the plan results in a shift in support towards the centre-left. But many of the people who traditionally vote Labour but didn't in 2008 or 2011 will have more important things on their minds. Things like affordable housing, the rising cost of living, and unemployment. Those are the issues Labour must target relentlessly.
I don't subscribe to the view that Labour is ultimately doomed, but the party has lost its way and appears to be unable to clearly explain to voters what it stands for. What it needs now above all else is strong leadership, and a renewed focus on the things that matter to those traditional Labour supporters who didn't bother to vote in 2008 or 2011.
Sunday, June 24, 2012
No Great Surprises In HOS Political Poll
The Herald on Sunday's political poll shows that, while most people oppose asset sales, they would buy SOE shares if they had the money.
The poll also shows support for National is solid, while Labour and the Greens are catching up. This is consistent with most other recent polls, which show that things are pretty much neck and neck. This far our from the election, and with the unpopular asset sales still to take place, that's not great news for National. Unless this tired-looking administration comes up with something new, the opposition parties really screw things up, or a new force on the right emerges to take the place of Act, I can't see how a National government only polling in the mid-40s can win a third term in office.
The poll shows that most people would like to buy shares in the SOEs, and that's not really a surprise. The companies are strong performers and would provide a solid return at relatively low risk. The only people with money who wouldn't buy are those who don't trust the stockmarket, and those who have a moral objection to buying back what they used to own.
It's a pity the Herald on Sunday didn't ask people whether they were intending to buy any of the shares. I suspect a relatively small proportion of the population will actually buy shares, and that those who do will mostly be high income earners, aided no doubt by the tax cuts the government gave them. But for most wage earners struggling to pay the rent or mortgage, investing in shares is an impossible dream.
I can't remember the last time I bought an actual newspaper, so I don't know whether details of the poll methodology (i.e. how many people were polled, how the poll was conducted etc) were included in the paper version of the HOS. The online version doesn't include these details, which makes the story next to useless on its own. However, details of the poll can be accessed here.
The poll also shows support for National is solid, while Labour and the Greens are catching up. This is consistent with most other recent polls, which show that things are pretty much neck and neck. This far our from the election, and with the unpopular asset sales still to take place, that's not great news for National. Unless this tired-looking administration comes up with something new, the opposition parties really screw things up, or a new force on the right emerges to take the place of Act, I can't see how a National government only polling in the mid-40s can win a third term in office.
The poll shows that most people would like to buy shares in the SOEs, and that's not really a surprise. The companies are strong performers and would provide a solid return at relatively low risk. The only people with money who wouldn't buy are those who don't trust the stockmarket, and those who have a moral objection to buying back what they used to own.
It's a pity the Herald on Sunday didn't ask people whether they were intending to buy any of the shares. I suspect a relatively small proportion of the population will actually buy shares, and that those who do will mostly be high income earners, aided no doubt by the tax cuts the government gave them. But for most wage earners struggling to pay the rent or mortgage, investing in shares is an impossible dream.
I can't remember the last time I bought an actual newspaper, so I don't know whether details of the poll methodology (i.e. how many people were polled, how the poll was conducted etc) were included in the paper version of the HOS. The online version doesn't include these details, which makes the story next to useless on its own. However, details of the poll can be accessed here.
Sunday, April 22, 2012
A Plague On Both Your Polls!
Okay, can someone clever please explain the recent poll results for me?
There's no question that the Key government has been taking a hammering in the media. It's also unarguable that some of National's policies are deeply unpopular with the voters. Asset sales, the Crafar Farms issue, the Sky City pokies deal: every time there's a poll on these issues (however unscientific), the results are damning.
So if people hate these policies, why do the polls say it's business as usual for National? The possible options:
There's no question that the Key government has been taking a hammering in the media. It's also unarguable that some of National's policies are deeply unpopular with the voters. Asset sales, the Crafar Farms issue, the Sky City pokies deal: every time there's a poll on these issues (however unscientific), the results are damning.
So if people hate these policies, why do the polls say it's business as usual for National? The possible options:
- While the populace don't like these policies, voters think the negatives are outweighed by the good things National are doing.
- People don't like National, but they dislike the opposition parties more.
- The polls are unreliable/wrong.
- It takes time for public sentiment on issues like asset sales etc. to show up in polls. People are growing more dissatisfied with things, but it is not yet showing up in their voting choices.
- It's all a media beat-up, and people still love Key and his government.
I don't like this government, which makes me hopelessly biased. However, if you were to ask me to pick what is going on I'd tentatively pick the fourth option. I can't see how one story after another in the media focusing on cronyism and special deals for National's mates can in the end have any effect other than to erode National's support. Good things take time!
But then I would say that. What do you think is going on in the polls?
Friday, November 18, 2011
Hurting Key
A number of people are predicting that the “teapot” saga will harm National on election day.
It’s impossible to tell whether these predictions have any merit A series of polls have been released in the last day indicating that support for National is largely steady, while NZ First seems to be on the rise. Support for Labour appears to be hovering in the late 20s, which is probably a sign that all the media focus on the PM has taken some of the attention off Phil Goff and his party.
One thing to remember with all these polls is that they are not an instant snapshot, and that polling takes place over a number of days. The Herald DigiPoll, for example, was taken from last Thursday to this Wednesday. Much of the polling took place before details about what John Key and John Banks might have spoken about became public, and before Key’s ham-fisted efforts to shut the story down became front-page news.
In summary, then, we can't yet predict how these events might influence the final outcome.
But even if National manages to escape its poor handling of this matter and form the next government, that does not mean the party or John Key are unharmed. John Key’s relationship with the media may have been irreparably damaged, and he will no longer be regarded by many journalists as a “good guy” or a decent bloke.
John Key may regret his decision to get the police involved in a political matter, over something that has nothing to do with any moral principle. We may bitch and moan about the news media’s obsession with celebrity stories and fluff pieces, but if you want to get journalists really pissed off the thing to do is use heavy-handed tactics to prevent them doing their job.
It’s impossible to tell whether these predictions have any merit A series of polls have been released in the last day indicating that support for National is largely steady, while NZ First seems to be on the rise. Support for Labour appears to be hovering in the late 20s, which is probably a sign that all the media focus on the PM has taken some of the attention off Phil Goff and his party.
One thing to remember with all these polls is that they are not an instant snapshot, and that polling takes place over a number of days. The Herald DigiPoll, for example, was taken from last Thursday to this Wednesday. Much of the polling took place before details about what John Key and John Banks might have spoken about became public, and before Key’s ham-fisted efforts to shut the story down became front-page news.
In summary, then, we can't yet predict how these events might influence the final outcome.
But even if National manages to escape its poor handling of this matter and form the next government, that does not mean the party or John Key are unharmed. John Key’s relationship with the media may have been irreparably damaged, and he will no longer be regarded by many journalists as a “good guy” or a decent bloke.
John Key may regret his decision to get the police involved in a political matter, over something that has nothing to do with any moral principle. We may bitch and moan about the news media’s obsession with celebrity stories and fluff pieces, but if you want to get journalists really pissed off the thing to do is use heavy-handed tactics to prevent them doing their job.
Wednesday, September 28, 2011
We're Back, Baby!
Labour is riding high in the polls. The latest Fairfax poll shows support for Labour has increased by a whopping 2.4%.
With the gap between the two parties now at only 26.2% National will be starting to worry. There's a real risk that National could lose this election, particularly if before November 26 John Key is caught dealing P to primary school children and Bill English catches religion and decides to tithe 10% of our taxes to the Destiny Church.
But even if those events do not transpire, there are good reasons for optimism, not least because National's support parties are only slightly less toxic than a curry-fart. ACT may still be wiped out, if Banks and Brash don't actually start to communicate with each other, while the Maori Party has become largely irrelevant and will probably take a pounding in November.
The signs for optimism are everywhere. For example, we are in the midst of a Rugby World Cup, and it's clear to everyone, even God Himself, that New Zealand will win. Do you know when we last won the thing? That's right, 1987, an election year, an election that Labour won. Even if He Who Must Not Be Spoken Of was finance minister at the time. And even though Peter Dunne was re-elected as a Labour MP.
So it's all tracking along nicely, and Labour will be back in control very soon. But if by some miracle or, more likely, massive electoral fraud perpetrated by its opponents (aided by shadowy forces and the PSA) Labour does not manage to regain office, then there's always next time. 2014 is looking even more positive. It will be the 100th anniversary of the commencement of World War One, and if that event won't deserve a change of government then I don't know what will.
With the gap between the two parties now at only 26.2% National will be starting to worry. There's a real risk that National could lose this election, particularly if before November 26 John Key is caught dealing P to primary school children and Bill English catches religion and decides to tithe 10% of our taxes to the Destiny Church.
But even if those events do not transpire, there are good reasons for optimism, not least because National's support parties are only slightly less toxic than a curry-fart. ACT may still be wiped out, if Banks and Brash don't actually start to communicate with each other, while the Maori Party has become largely irrelevant and will probably take a pounding in November.
The signs for optimism are everywhere. For example, we are in the midst of a Rugby World Cup, and it's clear to everyone, even God Himself, that New Zealand will win. Do you know when we last won the thing? That's right, 1987, an election year, an election that Labour won. Even if He Who Must Not Be Spoken Of was finance minister at the time. And even though Peter Dunne was re-elected as a Labour MP.
So it's all tracking along nicely, and Labour will be back in control very soon. But if by some miracle or, more likely, massive electoral fraud perpetrated by its opponents (aided by shadowy forces and the PSA) Labour does not manage to regain office, then there's always next time. 2014 is looking even more positive. It will be the 100th anniversary of the commencement of World War One, and if that event won't deserve a change of government then I don't know what will.
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
It's All The Greens' Fault Part II
One positive for Labour amidst the gloom of the latest Fairfax poll is that Labour is polling over 20 times higher than ACT.
I'll take any small victory I can at this stage.
And it's no great surprise that ACT is doing so poorly. I doubt the release of its party list will make much difference, because the people on the group are less than inspiring. On current polling it's largely academic who else besides the three B's is on the list (Brash, Boscawen, Banks). If the latest Fairfax poll were translated to an election result only John Banks would get into Parliament, assuming he wins Epsom.
If ACT does badly in November then we should expect Don Brash to be rolled, or to just give up. He promised that the bloodletting, ruthlessness and betrayals would all be for the greater good. It's not working so far.
I was surprised by the number of usually-sensible people who thought Cathy Odgers, aka Cactus Kate, should have got a place on the list. She may be smart and stroppy, but someone who expresses such a loud and regular contempt for the poor was never going to have a show of appearing high on the list. She may simply be echoing what Brash and others think, but they at least pretend to give a damn about the plight of the poor. Even if (judging by the polls) almost nobody believes them.
Anyway, back to the Fairfax poll. It's not pretty for ACT, but nor is it going to make Labour feel any better. It seems that much of Labour's support is drifting to the Greens, but the Greens are notoriously poor at getting out the vote on election day. My bet is that the Greens won't poll anywhere near as high as 11% on the day. On the other hand, if I was a gambling man I'd probably be broke by now.
I'll take any small victory I can at this stage.
And it's no great surprise that ACT is doing so poorly. I doubt the release of its party list will make much difference, because the people on the group are less than inspiring. On current polling it's largely academic who else besides the three B's is on the list (Brash, Boscawen, Banks). If the latest Fairfax poll were translated to an election result only John Banks would get into Parliament, assuming he wins Epsom.
If ACT does badly in November then we should expect Don Brash to be rolled, or to just give up. He promised that the bloodletting, ruthlessness and betrayals would all be for the greater good. It's not working so far.
I was surprised by the number of usually-sensible people who thought Cathy Odgers, aka Cactus Kate, should have got a place on the list. She may be smart and stroppy, but someone who expresses such a loud and regular contempt for the poor was never going to have a show of appearing high on the list. She may simply be echoing what Brash and others think, but they at least pretend to give a damn about the plight of the poor. Even if (judging by the polls) almost nobody believes them.
Anyway, back to the Fairfax poll. It's not pretty for ACT, but nor is it going to make Labour feel any better. It seems that much of Labour's support is drifting to the Greens, but the Greens are notoriously poor at getting out the vote on election day. My bet is that the Greens won't poll anywhere near as high as 11% on the day. On the other hand, if I was a gambling man I'd probably be broke by now.
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
It Will All Be The Fault Of The Greens Anyway
No I’m not talking about the car-tram fender-bender, but the latest Herald Digipoll.
It really is hard work being a Labour supporter, I tell you. We have all the answers but you people just aren’t listening. What is wrong with you? No, you come back here and answer my question! Was it something we said or did?
On second thoughts, I’m not sure you need to tell me anything, because I’ve probably heard it all before. Even if there’s some fair comment amidst a great deal of the carping I’ve heard about Labour and its leadership, direction, PR, etc, it doesn’t change the fact that a bad Labour’s still (in my totally unbiased opinion) miles better than a good National. Unless you like the idea of asset sales, slashing welfare, increasing the gap between richest and poorest, etc etc.
When a party gets behind in the polls the temptation can be to abandon them for the party in the lead. We all like a winner, right? I suspect we may be seeing some of this behaviour in the recent poll results. But I remain confident that you, my audience would never do such a thing, and that you will choose who to vote for based on matters of principle and policy.
But if I am wrong and I find out what you have done, there will be hell to pay.
Some people have written Labour off already, but they might be in for a surprise. It’s a fact that polls are unreliable, and only one poll really matters, the one on 26 November. The future isn’t set in stone, and anything could happen. John Key could be hit by a meteorite, or be photographed in a naked romp with Muammar Gaddafi and a goat. The army could step in and depose John Key for the national good. These things could happen, dammit! Don’t give up hope!
But should the cloud of evil lingering over our nation stay put for another three years, or even longer, then let us not give in to despair. John Key is a mortal man, and unless they find a way to clone him or resurrect him from the dead, he won’t be PM forever. Our grandchildren may yet see a Labour government.
Sunday, August 21, 2011
In The Bag
I'm not interested in the two political polls out today. They were taken before the bike race.
Thanks to Trevor we'll win it from here.
Thanks to Trevor we'll win it from here.
Monday, August 8, 2011
Sunday, July 24, 2011
Is Latest Horizon Poll Credible?
The Sunday Star Times has a story about the latest Horizon poll, which shows that, while the Nats are comfortably ahead of Labour, the difference between the left and right is small.
This is good news for the left for sure, even if the polling methodology Horizon uses suggests that the results may not be as credible as those of the polls that use phone polling.
From what I can tell anyone can register to vote on the Horizon political poll, so it would be quite easy for a small group of committed activists to influence poll results. I'm not saying that has happened, but it is noticeable the trend in the Horizon Poll is for the left parties to register higher support than in the other regular polls (TV3, TVNZ, Roy Morgan). The other regular polls indicate that the gap between left and right is still quite big.
Phone polling has its own problems, because a lot of people with limited means don't have landlines, and this may skew some results towards the right parties. But whether this is a major factor or not isn't clear.
It's also pretty obvious that the two TV polls are the only ones that count, at least in the minds of the mainstream commentariat. A day after the Roy Morgan poll came out showing a lift in support for Labour and the Greens, I was still hearing people on the radio talking about how damning of Labour's tax package the TVNZ poll was.
All of this suggests that, while polls are useful measures of where public support for political parties resides at any given time, we should be wary of taking too much from them.
This is good news for the left for sure, even if the polling methodology Horizon uses suggests that the results may not be as credible as those of the polls that use phone polling.
From what I can tell anyone can register to vote on the Horizon political poll, so it would be quite easy for a small group of committed activists to influence poll results. I'm not saying that has happened, but it is noticeable the trend in the Horizon Poll is for the left parties to register higher support than in the other regular polls (TV3, TVNZ, Roy Morgan). The other regular polls indicate that the gap between left and right is still quite big.
Phone polling has its own problems, because a lot of people with limited means don't have landlines, and this may skew some results towards the right parties. But whether this is a major factor or not isn't clear.
It's also pretty obvious that the two TV polls are the only ones that count, at least in the minds of the mainstream commentariat. A day after the Roy Morgan poll came out showing a lift in support for Labour and the Greens, I was still hearing people on the radio talking about how damning of Labour's tax package the TVNZ poll was.
All of this suggests that, while polls are useful measures of where public support for political parties resides at any given time, we should be wary of taking too much from them.
Wednesday, July 20, 2011
Latest Roy Morgan: Labour and Greens Up, Nats Down
Since we on the left were all in despair a few days ago over the TVNZ poll, it's only fair that I should mention the latest Roy Morgan poll. It still shows a sizeable gap between the left and right, but the gap has closed by five points. Another couple of months of that and it's game on.
The poll was conducted in the period leading up to Labour's tax announcement. Does the fact that the numbers have gone up show that the voters actually like the policy? Remember how earlier in the week the Nats and their tame bloggers were crowing about how the TVNZ poll was a thumbs-down for the tax plan?
Polls come and polls go. This one's better news, and it will make those in Labour who were in despair at the TVNZ poll feel someone more heartened. But let's not get carried away. The gap's still large.
The poll was conducted in the period leading up to Labour's tax announcement. Does the fact that the numbers have gone up show that the voters actually like the policy? Remember how earlier in the week the Nats and their tame bloggers were crowing about how the TVNZ poll was a thumbs-down for the tax plan?
Polls come and polls go. This one's better news, and it will make those in Labour who were in despair at the TVNZ poll feel someone more heartened. But let's not get carried away. The gap's still large.
Monday, July 18, 2011
It's Probably Not The Tax Thing
So Labour's support collapsed in the latest political poll because of the capital gains tax announcement.
That's the current wisdom being touted by the so-called experts.
Those who dare to differ are being called denialists, unable to face the cold hard truth about the harsh poll.
Even though the same poll that saw Labour's support slump to 27% showed 47% of those polled supported a CGT.
Polls paint a particular picture on a particular day. A range of polls can show a trend. The trend has been bad for Labour, and anyone who suggests otherwise is fooling themselves. But whereas polls may have something useful to say, much of the punditry around polling is idiotic noise.
(Hat Tip: Dim Post)
That's the current wisdom being touted by the so-called experts.
Those who dare to differ are being called denialists, unable to face the cold hard truth about the harsh poll.
Even though the same poll that saw Labour's support slump to 27% showed 47% of those polled supported a CGT.
Polls paint a particular picture on a particular day. A range of polls can show a trend. The trend has been bad for Labour, and anyone who suggests otherwise is fooling themselves. But whereas polls may have something useful to say, much of the punditry around polling is idiotic noise.
(Hat Tip: Dim Post)
Sunday, July 17, 2011
Invincible!
I actually don't know why the poll is so dire. But I'm reluctant to put it all down to Labour's tax announcement. The poll closed the day before Labour's official policy release, and while the policy was being discussed for days before in the press, I'm not sure how much of it will have been noticed by the average voter.
And if the CGT has voters fleeing Labour, why is it that many of them seem to be leaving Labour for the Greens? The poll seems to indicate that most of the loss to Labour is being picked up by the Greens. That's not ideal from Labour's point of view, but if you have to lose votes to someone it's better that it's a party you intend to work with.
Still, the poll's a bit of a kick in the head for those of us out there doorknocking or delivering pamphlets, but it just means the party activists will have to work even harder.
You certainly meet some different folk when you go doorknocking. Most people are nice, even the people who vote for the Evil Ones. And you never do know what to expect when someone opens the door. A little old lady I spoke to today at one house was incensed by Labour's tax package and spent the next ten minutes berating me about the evils of Maori and Polynesian people. I had not until that moment considered the racial implications of the new tax policy, but I suspect that if I had been selling vacuum cleaners the old dear would have delivered much the same speech to me. I'd have got angry if she hadn't seemed like such a sad and lonely old woman.
But the good thing about knocking on doors is you get the chance to talk to a range of people from all walks of life. It's a good innoculation against the bombast and sneering that passes for political debate in many sections of the blogosphere. So the doorknocking will continue.
I wouldn't throw in the towel just yet over one poll, because only a couple of polls ago Labour was polling in the mid-30s. And I'd wait until the next couple of polls before judging whether what effect Labour's tax package has had.
This is not head-in-sand stuff. It's obvious that the poll isn't good news. But throwing in the towel won't help either, and one day (whether it's after this election or next), Labour will be back in government. So the fight will go on.
Sunday, July 10, 2011
TV3 Poll Shows Gap Not Closing
The latest TV3 poll isn't great news for Labour, and it yet again shows how much the polls are jumping about, although support for National remains solid.
While it indicates that on current form the Nats can rule alone, none of National's allies do well in the poll. ACT is still trawling somewhere near the bottom, while the Maori Party's support is low and they will probably only bring in a couple of electorate MPs. Dunne may be there if he hangs onto his seat, but that could be a close thing. So the Nats cannot rely too much on their allies if they drop below 50% support.
The real beneficiaries in this poll are the Greens. It's not dire news for Labour that some of its support may have moved to the Greens. Realistically Labour cannot expect to form a government without the Greens, so votes to the Greens aren't entirely wasted as far as Labour supporters are concerned. It would be worse if Labour's lost votes had drifted entirely to the Nats.
But I won't pretend the poll is good news for the left. It shows the gap between the two main parties is significant. However, the gap could close quickly if an issue grabs the public imagination. I'm not sure whether Labour's tax policy will do that, because I've no idea what it consists of. If support for the Greens holds and Labour can creep into the mid-30s then they'll still be in the hunt.
My pick is that the gap will close before the election, but by how much is anyone's guess. I certainly wouldn't be writing Labour's obituary just yet.
While it indicates that on current form the Nats can rule alone, none of National's allies do well in the poll. ACT is still trawling somewhere near the bottom, while the Maori Party's support is low and they will probably only bring in a couple of electorate MPs. Dunne may be there if he hangs onto his seat, but that could be a close thing. So the Nats cannot rely too much on their allies if they drop below 50% support.
The real beneficiaries in this poll are the Greens. It's not dire news for Labour that some of its support may have moved to the Greens. Realistically Labour cannot expect to form a government without the Greens, so votes to the Greens aren't entirely wasted as far as Labour supporters are concerned. It would be worse if Labour's lost votes had drifted entirely to the Nats.
But I won't pretend the poll is good news for the left. It shows the gap between the two main parties is significant. However, the gap could close quickly if an issue grabs the public imagination. I'm not sure whether Labour's tax policy will do that, because I've no idea what it consists of. If support for the Greens holds and Labour can creep into the mid-30s then they'll still be in the hunt.
My pick is that the gap will close before the election, but by how much is anyone's guess. I certainly wouldn't be writing Labour's obituary just yet.
Sunday, July 3, 2011
Polls Closing, And Tight Contest Looking More Probable
I hadn’t
managed to comment on the most recent political poll until now, but it suggests that the
November election could be a tight contest.
After the
last Roy Morgan Poll David Farrar observed that National had dropped only 2%
over the last three years, while support for Labour had increased by 3%. Farrar gleefully wrote:
If that rate continued it would not be until almost 2020 that Labour outpolled National.
Yet in last week’s Herald Digipoll the gap between the two
main parties reduced from 21.7% to 15.1% in one month.
If that rate continues Labour will be outpolling National by
October.
I’m not for a moment suggesting that such a thing will
happen. It does illustrate, though, how erratic the polls can be.
Labour wouldn’t necessarily need to catch National in the
polls to govern after the election, because it has more coalition options. If
the Greens can get 8% of the vote and Labour can move up another 5-6% the election
may come down to the wire. The common wisdom six months ago was that Labour had
no show without Winston Peters. But since then ACT and the Maori Party have
imploded. A Peters-less parliament could still have a Labour government by the end
of 2011.
That really isn’t as unlikely as some people may think. The
Greens are somewhere between 6-10% in most polls, and Labour’s recently been
scoring in the mid-30s. A strong election campaign could see them pick up more
support. They haven’t yet released any major policy, so if they can come up
with good policies that are well-costed they could see their numbers moving up.
The Nats aren’t without options of their own, but none of
them are sure things. The ACT brand is so tarnished that there’s no telling
what the folk of Epsom might do, and the Maori Party is likely to take a pounding
in November. Peter Dunne’s seat is marginal, and Labour will push hard to win
it this year.
The biggest uncertainty is the Rugby World Cup and whether
it will affect the political mood of the nation. Nobody knows yet.
The election promises to be a gripping contest, whatever
happens.
Friday, June 10, 2011
Roy Morgan Poll: Some Gains For The Left, But Also Danger Signs
The latest Roy Morgan poll makes for some interesting reading.
This particular poll has jumped all over the place in recent months. What that says about its reliability is anyone’s guess.
Anyway, Labour’s done well in the latest poll, though support for National remains solid. The Nats would probably be able to form the next government, but if Labour’s support holds up in the next poll or even improves, John Key may start to worry. National doesn’t have as many coalition options as Labour, because its support parties are struggling in the polls. It’s likely that unless John Banks wins Epsom ACT will be wiped out. Even if Banks wins that seat, he may only bring in one other ACT MP. Peter Dunne has a fight on his hands for his seat, and it’s not clear whether he’ll survive. Labour seems confident that they can win Ohariu if they run a good campaign. And the Maori Party may end up having at best two or three MPs.
If the Nats get say 45% of the popular vote, Dunne loses, and ACT and the Maori Party get between them say four seats, National could find itself agonisingly short of the numbers needed to govern.
But it’s not all good news for the left. The Greens have taken a hit in the poll, down from 10% to 6.5%. There’s a theory (I don’t know how reliable it is) that support for the Greens in the opinion polls is always higher than at the ballot box, because a lot of young people who don’t bother to vote on the day will tell the pollsters they support the Greens. If that is true, and if this latest poll is reliable, the Greens are not out of danger. On present numbers Labour will need the support of the Greens to form a government.
I wouldn’t read too much into the statement by the Greens during their annual conference that they might be able to work with National. In reality they’re poles apart on just about every issue. The statement was intended to make it clear to Labour that support for the Greens should not be taken for granted. And fair enough too.
It’s hard to know where NZ First will end up, but my suspicion is that they’ll fall short of the 5% mark. That’s not necessarily a disaster for the left, because Winston Peters is regarded by some as toxic, and if Peters does end up with say 4% of the vote they won’t all be coming from the left.
Anyway, as much fun as poll-gazing is, the Roy Morgan is just one measurement, and other polls may tell a different story.
This particular poll has jumped all over the place in recent months. What that says about its reliability is anyone’s guess.
Anyway, Labour’s done well in the latest poll, though support for National remains solid. The Nats would probably be able to form the next government, but if Labour’s support holds up in the next poll or even improves, John Key may start to worry. National doesn’t have as many coalition options as Labour, because its support parties are struggling in the polls. It’s likely that unless John Banks wins Epsom ACT will be wiped out. Even if Banks wins that seat, he may only bring in one other ACT MP. Peter Dunne has a fight on his hands for his seat, and it’s not clear whether he’ll survive. Labour seems confident that they can win Ohariu if they run a good campaign. And the Maori Party may end up having at best two or three MPs.
If the Nats get say 45% of the popular vote, Dunne loses, and ACT and the Maori Party get between them say four seats, National could find itself agonisingly short of the numbers needed to govern.
But it’s not all good news for the left. The Greens have taken a hit in the poll, down from 10% to 6.5%. There’s a theory (I don’t know how reliable it is) that support for the Greens in the opinion polls is always higher than at the ballot box, because a lot of young people who don’t bother to vote on the day will tell the pollsters they support the Greens. If that is true, and if this latest poll is reliable, the Greens are not out of danger. On present numbers Labour will need the support of the Greens to form a government.
I wouldn’t read too much into the statement by the Greens during their annual conference that they might be able to work with National. In reality they’re poles apart on just about every issue. The statement was intended to make it clear to Labour that support for the Greens should not be taken for granted. And fair enough too.
It’s hard to know where NZ First will end up, but my suspicion is that they’ll fall short of the 5% mark. That’s not necessarily a disaster for the left, because Winston Peters is regarded by some as toxic, and if Peters does end up with say 4% of the vote they won’t all be coming from the left.
Anyway, as much fun as poll-gazing is, the Roy Morgan is just one measurement, and other polls may tell a different story.
Sunday, April 17, 2011
Awful Poll Smashes Labour Hopes
The TV3 Reid Research poll is dire news for Labour. You can't usually read too much into a single poll, but this one is spectacularly bad. It follows a number of polls that have been either bad or mediocre at best for Labour.
This close to an election Labour ought to be closing the gap with National. But it seems that the worse things get for the country, and the more bad news we have, the stronger the support for National grows. It is tempting to attribute this to people seeking out strong leadership in a time of crisis, and there may be something in that, even if some of the woes besetting us have been exacerbated by this government.
The difference between the two parties is leadership. John Key may lead a pretty average cabinet, and the calibre of some of National's backbench talent (if I can use the word "talent" to describe lightweights such as Melissa Lee) should be of some concern to the party. But people love Key. If something happened to Key the Nats would probably suddenly look as clueless as the opposition, because there's not that much quality behind him. Bill English as PM?
Then there's the Labour leadership. I don't care how nice they are as people. They're just a terrible opposition. The excuses used by Labour to justify voting for measures that would disgrace any genuinely socially liberal party just won't wash any more. If people are walking away from Labour then it's the Labour leadership who are to blame.
This particular poll result showed that support for the Greens slipped also. But I'd expect quite a few disillusioned Labour voters will start looking at other alternatives. Like the Greens, or NZ First.
The failings of Labour have now become the dominant theme in political discourse in this country. So awful have Labour been that they've handed National a free pass. Instead of investigating the South Canterbury Finance debacle and asking tough questions of the government, political journalists are more interested in reporting on the squabbles and strife within the main opposition party. I suspect that only a cleanout at the top, and of the dead wood within the party, will do the trick. This will probably happen when (as now seems increasingly likely) Labour is smashed to bits in November.
Labour were perhaps too complacent after 2008, and that was no better demonstrated than by the bloodless leadership transition from Clark to Goff. They comforted themselves that they'd done nothing wrong and that John Key would be a nine day wonder. A bloody battle for leadership might have done the party some good, helping to establish what they stood for and giving some direction and purpose to the organisation.
So maybe something good will come from a savage beating at the polls in November.
This close to an election Labour ought to be closing the gap with National. But it seems that the worse things get for the country, and the more bad news we have, the stronger the support for National grows. It is tempting to attribute this to people seeking out strong leadership in a time of crisis, and there may be something in that, even if some of the woes besetting us have been exacerbated by this government.
The difference between the two parties is leadership. John Key may lead a pretty average cabinet, and the calibre of some of National's backbench talent (if I can use the word "talent" to describe lightweights such as Melissa Lee) should be of some concern to the party. But people love Key. If something happened to Key the Nats would probably suddenly look as clueless as the opposition, because there's not that much quality behind him. Bill English as PM?
Then there's the Labour leadership. I don't care how nice they are as people. They're just a terrible opposition. The excuses used by Labour to justify voting for measures that would disgrace any genuinely socially liberal party just won't wash any more. If people are walking away from Labour then it's the Labour leadership who are to blame.
This particular poll result showed that support for the Greens slipped also. But I'd expect quite a few disillusioned Labour voters will start looking at other alternatives. Like the Greens, or NZ First.
The failings of Labour have now become the dominant theme in political discourse in this country. So awful have Labour been that they've handed National a free pass. Instead of investigating the South Canterbury Finance debacle and asking tough questions of the government, political journalists are more interested in reporting on the squabbles and strife within the main opposition party. I suspect that only a cleanout at the top, and of the dead wood within the party, will do the trick. This will probably happen when (as now seems increasingly likely) Labour is smashed to bits in November.
Labour were perhaps too complacent after 2008, and that was no better demonstrated than by the bloodless leadership transition from Clark to Goff. They comforted themselves that they'd done nothing wrong and that John Key would be a nine day wonder. A bloody battle for leadership might have done the party some good, helping to establish what they stood for and giving some direction and purpose to the organisation.
So maybe something good will come from a savage beating at the polls in November.
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